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^ I already roughly knew how low the probability was. Does that factor in that the universe was already roughly 9 - 10 billion years old at the time the earth formed? Or how about that the earth was about 1 billion years old at the time things like DNA and RNA started forming?

A lot of things will eventually happen given sufficient time whenever it exists anywhere within the realm of probability.

The problem with saying that some bronze age desert god did it prevents one from further searching and doing cool research and experiments like this:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/first-life-with-alien-
dna-created-in-lab/

"How do you know that?"

Based upon the best currently available scientific evidence and reasoning.

"Maybe Santa Clause exists, too?"

There is no evidence to support this, unless you define Santa Claus as something else, like the historical St. Nicholas of Turkey, the guy with a fake beard at the mall and red clothes in December or maybe if you define him as an aardvark.